The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 8, 2022, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. It will be held concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. senators, elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, and a gubernatorial election. Republican surgeon Mehmet Oz and Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman will seek the Senate seat.

The election is expected to be competitive and important to determine party control of the Senate in 2023 due to incumbent Republican senator Pat Toomey not seeking re-election after two terms.[1][2] As the election is for an open Republican-held seat in a state won by Democratic president Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, it is seen by many Democrats as the best possible Senate pick-up in 2022.[3][4]

In the May 17 primary, Fetterman won the Democratic nomination with 59% of the vote.[5] Oz finished with a 0.1% difference between him and David McCormick in the Republican primary, triggering an automatic recount. McCormick conceded the nomination on June 3,[6] making Oz the first Muslim candidate to be nominated by either major party for U.S. Senate.[7]

Republican primary

Campaign

In October 2020, incumbent Republican senator Pat Toomey announced that he would not run for re-election, stating that he wished to return to the private sector.[8]

By October 2021, businessman Jeff Bartos, who had posted strong fund-raising totals, and veteran Sean Parnell, who had the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, emerged as the race’s front-runners.[9] Parnell’s campaign was rocked in November 2021, after Parnell’s ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court during a custody hearing for the couple’s children that Parnell strangled and spit on her, abused their children, and told her to “go get an abortion.”[10] Even prior to these allegations doubts had arisen among Republicans regarding Parnell’s fundraising ability, and it became widely assumed that he would suspend his campaign if he did not win custody of his children.[11] On November 22, 2021, Snell was given custody of the children and Parnell subsequently announced that he was suspending his campaign.[12]

On November 30, with Parnell out of the race, Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor and television personality, announced his candidacy.[13] Oz’s campaign entered an immediate controversy over whether Oz himself was a resident of Pennsylvania, as he had lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey, for most of his life and had only registered to vote in Pennsylvania in October 2020.[13][14] The January 2022 entrance of David McCormick prompted attacks for McCormick’s past detraction of Trump and criticism of “America First” economic policies from Oz allies.[15] Super PACs allied to McCormick hit back with a spate of highly funded television advertisements, accusing Oz of being a “Hollywood liberal.”[16]

Republican straw polls in January 2022 indicated strong support for Bartos and political commentator Kathy Barnette among party activists as the campaign started to escalate. Bartos won the Republican State Committee Central Caucus’s straw poll, placing first with 49 votes, while Barnette finished in second place with 30 votes. McCormick and Sands trailed at third and fourth place; and Oz and former Boxing Commissioner George Bochetto performed poorly, each receiving only one vote.[17][18]

The McCormick campaign targeted Oz’s ties to Turkey and called on him to renounce his Turkish citizenship, accusing the candidate of harboring dual loyalties.[19] Oz later stated that if he were elected to the Senate, he would renounce his Turkish citizenship.[20] Former President Trump endorsed Oz on April 10, citing the popularity of his television show and perceived appeal to female voters.[21]

Oz had been ahead of the other candidates in the polls since the start of his campaign, with McCormick soon rising quickly in the polls to challenge Oz in the low 20s. Barnette had also begun to rise in the polls at this point after a string of attention-getting debate performances and an ad spend in support of her by the Club for Growth, and her late surge prompted a change in tactics from the two frontrunners, who had largely ignored her as irrelevant until then.[22] Pro-Oz Super PAC American Leadership Action launched an ad campaign accusing Barnette of supporting Black Lives Matter, while McCormick stated that Barnette was unelectable, citing her heavy loss in a U.S. House race the previous election cycle.[22] Oz himself also accused Barnette of Islamophobia, pointing to a 2015 tweet in which she stated, “Pedophilia is a Cornerstone of Islam.”[23]

Candidates

Nominees

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • John Debellis, small business owner[35]
  • John Eichenberg, truck driver[36]
  • Robert Jeffries, perennial candidate[37]
  • Ron Johnson, U.S. Armed Forces veteran, former construction worker, and former Walmart manager[38][39] (running as the Constitution nominee)
  • Richard Mulholland, HVAC technician[40]
  • Max Richardson[41]
  • Martin Rosenfeld, deputy sheriff of Elk County, Pennsylvania and treasurer of the Elk County Republican Party[42]
  • David Xu, U.S. Army veteran, college professor and IT business owner[43]

Withdrew

Declined

Debates and forums

2022 Pennsylvania Senate election Republican primary debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Kathy BarnetteGeorge BochettoJeff BartosSean GaleDavid McCormickMehmet OzCarla SandsEverett Stern
1Feb. 22, 2022BroadandLiberty.com
Pennsylvania Chamber of Business & Industry
Becky CorbinVideoPPPNAAAP
2Apr. 25, 2022ABC27Dennis Owens
Lisa Sylvester
VideoPNPNPPPW
3May 4, 2022Newsmax TVGreta Van Susteren
Rick Dayton
PNPNPPPW

Endorsements

Kathy Barnette
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Jeff Bartos
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations
Individuals
George Bochetto
Judges
Labor unions
Robert Jeffries
Individuals
David McCormick
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. Governors
U.S. Representatives
Local officials
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Mehmet Oz
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Carla Sands
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Sean Parnell (withdrawn)
U.S. Presidents
  • Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) (switched endorsement to Oz after Parnell withdrew)[94]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Craig Snyder (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Representatives
Declined to endorse

Polling

Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kathy
Barnette
Jeff
Bartos
David
McCormick
Mehmet
Oz
Carla
Sands
Other[a]Margin
Real Clear PoliticsMay 3–16, 2022May 17, 202224.2%5.4%19.6%26.8%6.0%18.0%Oz +2.6
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Kathy
Barnette
Jeff
Bartos
David
McCormick
Mehmet
Oz
Sean
Parnell
Carla
Sands
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)May 14–16, 20221,195 (LV)± 2.9%27%7%22%29%7%4%[c]6%
Emerson CollegeMay 14–15, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%24%5%21%28%6%1%[d]15%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)May 12–15, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%27%2%11%28%3%3%[e]26%
Osage Research (R)[A]May 12–13, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.1%24%6%25%24%7%1%[f]13%
InsiderAdvantage (R)May 7–9, 2022750 (LV)± 3.6%21%5%19%23%5%3%[g]26%
The Trafalgar Group (R)May 6–8, 20221,080 (LV)± 3.0%23%7%22%25%7%2%[h]15%
Fox NewsMay 3–7, 20221,001 (LV)± 3.0%19%7%20%22%8%4%[i]18%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeApril 20 – May 1, 2022325 (RV)± 6.9%12%2%16%18%5%6%[j]39%
The Trafalgar Group (R)April 11–13, 20221,074 (LV)± 3.0%18%8%20%23%11%3%[k]17%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeMarch 30 – April 10, 2022317 (RV)± 6.6%7%6%15%16%5%8%[l]43%
Eagle Consulting Group (R)April 7–9, 2022502 (LV)± 4.4%9%6%18%11%9%2%[m]45%
Emerson CollegeApril 3–4, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%10%9%18%17%8%6%[n]33%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A]March 29 – April 3, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%13%8%22%16%11%1%[o]
Emerson CollegeMarch 26–28, 2022372 (LV)± 5.0%6%5%14%14%6%3%[p]51%
Basswood Research (R)[B]March 19–21, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%11%5%22%25%13%1%[o]23%
Fox NewsMarch 2–6, 2022960 (LV)± 3.0%9%9%24%15%6%3%[q]31%
TargetPoint Consulting (R)February 25–28, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%5%10%25%19%11%6%25%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeFebruary 21–27, 2022178 (LV)± 10.1%6%4%13%10%11%3%53%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A]~February 23, 2022– (LV)9%5%24%18%11%1%[o]
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[C]February 16–18, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%24%18%31%27%
Osage Research (R)[A]February 13–16, 2022825 (LV)± 4.0%7%6%24%21%11%3%28%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A]~February 9, 2022– (LV)9%5%17%23%17%1%[o]
The Trafalgar Group (R)February 1–4, 20221,070 (LV)± 3.0%9%7%16%27%15%6%[r]22%
Osage Research (R)[A]January 31 – February 2, 2022– (LV)19%29%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A]~January 6, 2022– (LV)9%8%13%31%12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)December 13–16, 20211,062 (LV)± 3.0%8%3%19%7%12%[s]51%
Echelon Insights (R)December 1–3, 2021200 (LV)± 6.9%7%4%11%5%10%[t]63%
November 22, 2021Parnell withdraws from the race
Civiqs (D)October 31 – November 5, 2021799 (LV)± 3.5%7%6%31%8%2%[u]54%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeOctober 18–24, 2021184 (RV)± 8.8%3%2%11%2%3%[v]78%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[D]October 11–14, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%7%27%4%5%57%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeAugust 9–15, 2021154 (RV)± 10.9%6%4%14%1%10%[w]66%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
David
McCormick
Mehmet
Oz
Undecided
TargetPoint Consulting (R)February 25–28, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%56%26%18%

Results

Following the first night of results, it became clear that Oz and McCormick were the top two vote-getters in the election; however, the margin between them was too close to declare a victor.[102] A mandatory recount then began.[103][102] Former President Trump encouraged Oz to declare victory on election night, stating that Oz would only be defeated as a result of election fraud; these claims were noted by Politico as echoing Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud in the 2020 presidential election.[104] With McCormick having done better with mail-in ballots, Oz opposed counting ballots which were received by election offices before election day but were missing dates on the envelopes.[105] A state court later required counties to count undated ballots as valid.[106]

On June 3, McCormick conceded to Oz, saying he could not make up the deficit in the recount.[107]

Results by county:

  Oz
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  McCormick
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Barnette
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results[103]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mehmet Oz 420,168 31.21%
RepublicanDavid McCormick419,21831.14%
RepublicanKathy Barnette331,90324.66%
RepublicanCarla Sands73,3605.45%
RepublicanJeff Bartos66,6844.95%
RepublicanSean Gale20,2661.51%
RepublicanGeorge Bochetto14,4921.08%
Total votes1,346,091 100.0%

Democratic primary

Campaign

The first two major Democratic candidates to announce were Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman and state representative Malcolm Kenyatta.[108] Both Fetterman and Kenyatta were considered to be staunchly progressive Democrats, but the two men were felt to appeal to different demographics.[108] By July 2021, Fetterman was considered the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, as a result of his high name recognition and strong fundraising.[109] U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, a moderate member of the party establishment, entered the race on August 6, 2021.[110][111]

As the campaign progressed, Lamb and Fetterman became the two most prominent candidates, with Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh also receiving media attention. Fetterman had maintained his frontrunner status as of December, and the other three contenders were viewed as mainly competing with each other in order to claim the anti-Fetterman mantle.[112] On February 4, 2022, Arkoosh withdrew from the race, her campaign having previously suffered from poor poll results and low support from party activists, leaving Kenyatta as the only major candidate from the Philadelphia region.[113] Both Kenyatta and Lamb were considered to have a good chance at picking up voters who had previously supported Arkoosh, Lamb for ideological reasons and Kenyatta for geographical ones.[113]

In addition to Fetterman, Kenyatta, and Lamb, two minor candidates also made the Democratic primary ballot, namely Kevin Baumlin, a hospital physician, and Alexandra Khalil, a municipal official. Baumlin withdrew from the race on March 31, leaving only Khalil in addition to the three major candidates.[114]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • Kael Dougherty, data operations associate[121]
  • Larry Johnson, attorney[122]
  • Alan Shank, retail worker[123]
  • Walter Sluzynsky, postal worker[124]
  • Lew Tapera, retail worker[125]

Withdrew

Declined

Debates

2022 Pennsylvania Senate election Democratic primary debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
John FettermanMalcolm KenyattaConor Lamb
1Apr. 3, 2022Muhlenberg CollegeBecky Corbin
Jenny DeHuff
Ari Mittleman
VideoA[x]PP
2Apr. 21, 2022ABC27Dennis Owens
Lisa Sylvester
VideoPPP

Endorsements

Val Arkoosh (withdrawn)
State legislators
Organizations
John Fetterman
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Malcolm Kenyatta
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals
Conor Lamb
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
John
Fetterman
Malcolm
Kenyatta
Conor
Lamb
Other
[z]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsMarch 26 – May 1, 2022May 5, 202243.0%6.0%12.0%39.0%Fetterman +31.0
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Val
Arkoosh
John
Fetterman
Malcolm
Kenyatta
Conor
Lamb
Sharif
Street
OtherUndecided
Franklin & Marshall CollegeApril 20 – May 1, 2022357 (RV)± 6.6%53%4%14%6%[aa]22%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeMarch 30 – April 10, 2022356 (RV)± 6.2%41%4%17%9%[ab]26%
GBAO (D)[E]April 5–7, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%44%17%19%4%[ac]15%
Emerson CollegeMarch 26–28, 2022471 (LV)± 4.5%33%8%10%12%[ad]37%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeFebruary 21–27, 2022185 (LV)± 9.9%28%2%15%7%50%
Impact Research (D)[F]Early February 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%3%47%7%17%5%8%13%
February 4, 2022Arkoosh withdraws from the race
Data for Progress (D)[E]January 26–31, 2022730 (LV)± 4.0%4%46%12%16%22%
January 19, 2022Street withdraws from the race
GQR Research (D)[G]December 14–16, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%6%44%20%15%2%12%
GBAO (D)[E]November 16–23, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%5%42%15%16%21%
Civiqs (D)October 31 – November 5, 2021929 (LV)± 3.2%2%52%5%12%2%6%21%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeOctober 18–24, 2021208 (RV)± 8.2%4%34%5%12%5%3%37%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeAugust 9–15, 2021175 (RV)± 10.2%6%33%5%12%0%3%42%
Data for Progress (D)[E]May 7–14, 2021302 (LV)± 6.0%5%40%9%21%2%8%[ae]14%

Results

Fetterman won the Democratic primary by a landslide, winning all 67 counties in Pennsylvania, with Lamb in second place. Lamb’s loss was attributed by Vanity Fair to numerous reasons, such as his not being known to voters in Eastern Pennsylvania, where the director of a progressive Democratic organization said the majority of Democratic voters were located, and the far more contested Republican primary taking media attention that Lamb might have used to gain recognition.[188] Fetterman was also widely considered to have run an effective populist campaign, with The Atlantic noting that his campaign focused on the issues of “workers, wages and weed“.[189]

Results by county

  Fetterman
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results[103]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Fetterman 753,557 58.65%
DemocraticConor Lamb337,49826.27%
DemocraticMalcolm Kenyatta139,39310.85%
DemocraticAlexandria Khalil54,4604.24%
Total votes1,284,908 100.0%

Libertarian convention

The Libertarian Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[190][191]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, small business owner, and candidate for president in 2020[192][193]

Withdrew

Green convention

The Green Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[190][191]

Candidates

Nominee

Independents and other parties

Independent candidate Everett Stern

Candidates

Qualified for ballot

Declared write-in

General election

Campaign

Fetterman’s campaign has framed Oz as a wealthy outsider who lived outside of Pennsylvania before 2020, including by airing ads that note his past residency in New Jersey. Fetterman has also flown banners and published social media posts described by The Hill and The Washington Post as “trolling” his opponent. In one post, Fetterman started a petition to get Oz inducted to the New Jersey Hall of Fame.[206] In response to the carpetbagging criticisms, Oz said during the primary debate that Pennsylvanians “care much more about what I stand for than where I’m from”.[207]

Oz’s campaign has criticized Fetterman for being inactive since he suffered a stroke in May and has made an issue of Fetterman’s health.[208][209][210] In September, Oz published Fetterman’s medical records, which prompted Fetterman to state he was medically cleared to serve in the Senate.[211][212][213] Oz’s campaign has also framed Fetterman as a socialist, highlighting his endorsement of Bernie Sanders in 2016. Fetterman countered that he has differences in policy proposals with Sanders in issues such as fracking.[214][215]

Fetterman’s refusal to debate Oz has been criticized by Oz’s campaign.[216][217] Fetterman’s team has not cited a reason for not debating, but criticized debate concessions from Oz’s team for allegedly mocking Fetterman’s stroke recovery.[218] In September, Fetterman said he agreed to debate Oz; the first debate is scheduled for October 25.[219]

“Crudités” video

On August 15, 2022, an April 2022 campaign video of Oz shopping in a Redner’s Warehouse supermarket went viral.[220] In the video, Oz says he is shopping for produce to make crudités and attributes the allegedly high prices to Democratic president Joe Biden. The video was widely ridiculed on social media and was the subject of several news articles. Most observers focused on Oz’s usage of the French term “crudités”, his choice of items, and several factual errors.[221][222]

When asked by Newsmax about the video, Oz said it demonstrated his desire to help others, which he had done throughout his career.[223]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[224]Lean D (flip)August 18, 2022
Inside Elections[225]TossupAugust 25, 2022
Sabato’s Crystal Ball[226]Lean D (flip)August 31, 2022
Politico[227]TossupJune 8, 2022
RCP[228]TossupAugust 14, 2022
Fox News[229]TossupJuly 11, 2022
DDHQ[230]TossupSeptember 30, 2022
538[231]Likely D (flip)August 25, 2022
The Economist[232]Likely D (flip)September 7, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Pennsylvania debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Mehmet OzJohn Fetterman
1Oct. 25, 2022Nexstar Media GroupTBAI[af]I[ag]

Endorsements

Mehmet Oz (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Individuals
John Fetterman (D)
U.S. Presidents
  • Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–present), 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017), and U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)[275]
Statewide officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Individuals

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Mehmet
Oz (R)
John
Fetterman (D)
Other
[ah]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsAugust 20 – September 26, 2022September 26, 202244.1%48.2%7.0%Fetterman +4.1%
FiveThirtyEightDecember 3, 2021 – September 26, 2022September 26, 202242.6%48.6%8.2%Fetterman +6.0%
Average43.4%48.4%7.5%Fetterman +5.1%
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mehmet
Oz (R)
John
Fetterman (D)
OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeSeptember 23–26, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%43%45%5%[ai]8%
Fox NewsSeptember 22–26, 20221,008 (RV)± 3.0%41%45%7%[aj]7%
827 (LV)± 3.0%44%48%3%[ak]5%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeSeptember 19–25, 2022517 (RV)± 5.6%42%45%13%
InsiderAdvantage (R)September 23–24, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%42%45%6%[al]8%
Marist CollegeSeptember 19–22, 20221,242 (RV)± 3.5%41%51%<1%[am]7%
1,043 (LV)± 3.8%44%51%4%
The Phillips Academy PollSeptember 16–19, 2022759 (RV)± 3.6%45%47%9%
Muhlenberg CollegeSeptember 13–16, 2022420 (LV)± 6.0%44%49%5%[an]2%
The Trafalgar Group (R)September 13–15, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%46%48%4%[ao]2%
YouGov/CBS NewsSeptember 6–12, 20221,194 (RV)± 3.8%47%52%1%
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022828 (RV)± 4.1%36%57%7%
RABA ResearchAugust 31 – September 3, 2022679 (LV)± 3.8%40%49%3%[ap]8%
Kurt Jetta (D)[H]August 31 – September 1, 20221,012 (RV)± 3.5%33%51%15%
616 (LV)36%55%9%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)August 22–29, 2022718 (LV)± 3.7%44%49%2%5%
Emerson CollegeAugust 22–23, 20221,034 (LV)± 3.0%44%48%3%5%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeAugust 15–21, 2022522 (RV)± 5.3%36%45%9%[aq]10%
The Trafalgar Group (R)August 15–18, 20221,096 (LV)± 2.9%44%48%4%[ar]5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)August 7–10, 2022600 (RV)± 4.0%36%52%11%
Kurt Jetta (D)[H]July 29 – August 1, 20221,206 (A)± 2.8%30%47%23%
997 (RV)± 3.1%32%48%20%
516 (LV)± 4.3%38%52%10%
Fox NewsJuly 22–26, 2022908 (RV)± 3.0%36%47%5%[as]11%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[I]July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%38%44%4%15%
Blueprint Polling (D)July 19–21, 2022712 (LV)± 3.7%40%49%12%
Beacon Research (D)[J]July 5–20, 20221,012 (RV)± 3.1%34%47%1%13%
609 (LV)± 4.0%39%50%2%9%
Global Strategy Group (D)[K]July 14–19, 20221,200 (LV)± 2.9%40%51%9%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)June 12–19, 20221,382 (LV)± 4.4%44%50%6%
Cygnal (R)June 16–17, 2022535 (LV)± 4.2%44%48%8%
Suffolk UniversityJune 10–13, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%37%46%3%[at]13%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)~May 10, 2022– (LV)33%51%16%
Data for Progress (D)[E]December 3–5, 2021581 (LV)± 4.0%42%44%13%
Hypothetical polling
Jeff Bartos vs. John Fetterman
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Bartos (R)
John
Fetterman (D)
Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[L]May 10–19, 2021450 (LV)± 4.7%36%45%19%
Data for Progress (D)[E]May 7–14, 2021310 (LV)± 5.6%38%48%14%
Jeff Bartos vs. Conor Lamb
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Bartos (R)
Conor
Lamb (D)
Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[E]May 7–14, 2021341 (LV)± 5.3%42%43%15%
Sean Parnell vs. John Fetterman
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Sean
Parnell (R)
John
Fetterman (D)
Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[L]May 10–19, 2021450 (LV)± 4.7%42%42%16%
Data for Progress (D)[E]May 7–14, 2021310 (LV)± 5.6%40%48%12%
Sean Parnell vs. Conor Lamb
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Sean
Parnell (R)
Conor
Lamb (D)
Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[E]May 7–14, 2021341 (LV)± 5.3%44%42%14%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanMehmet Oz
DemocraticJohn Fetterman
LibertarianErik Gerhardt
GreenRichard L. WeissN/A
KeystoneDan WassmerN/A
Total votes N/A

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Bochetto and Gale with 2%
  4. ^ Bochetto with 1%, Gale with 0%
  5. ^ Bochetto, Gale, and “Other” with 1%
  6. ^ Bochetto with 1%
  7. ^ Bochetto and Gale with 1%
  8. ^ Bochetto and Gale with 1%
  9. ^ Gale with 2%, Bochetto and “Other” (volunteered response) with 1%
  10. ^ “Someone else” with 5%, Gale with 1%, Bochetto with 0%
  11. ^ Bochetto with 3%, Gale with 1%
  12. ^ “Someone else” with 6%, Bochetto with 2%, Gale with 0%
  13. ^ Bochetto and Gale with ≤1%
  14. ^ Bochetto with 4%, Gale with 3%
  15. ^ a b c d Bochetto with 1%
  16. ^ Bochetto with 2%, Gale with 1%
  17. ^ Bochetto, Stern, and “Other” (volunteered response) with 1%
  18. ^ Bochetto, Gale, and Stern with 2%
  19. ^ “Another Candidate” with 11%, Gale with 1%
  20. ^ Gale with 4%; Jeffries with 2%; Xu with 1%; Stern with 0%
  21. ^ Gale with 2%
  22. ^ “Someone else” with 3%, Gale with 0%
  23. ^ “Someone else” with 7%, Gale with 3%
  24. ^ Fetterman was invited to the debate, but declined to attend
  25. ^ Conor Lamb received the most delegate votes of 169, but failed to reach the self-imposed threshold of a two-thirds majority vote, meaning that no candidate received the endorsement of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.
  26. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  27. ^ “Someone else” with 4%; Baumlin and Khalil with 1%
  28. ^ “Someone else” with 9%; Baumlin and Khalil with 0%
  29. ^ Khalil with 4%
  30. ^ Baumlin with 9%; Khalil with 3%
  31. ^ Houlahan with 8%
  32. ^ Oz was invited to the debate and plans to attend
  33. ^ Fetterman was invited to the debate and plans to attend
  34. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  35. ^ “Someone else” with 5%
  36. ^ Stern (I, W/I) with 3%, “other” with 1%, and 3% “wouldn’t vote,”
  37. ^ Stern (I, W/I) with 2%, “other” with 1%
  38. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 2%; “Someone else” with 4%
  39. ^ “Another party’s candidate” with <1%
  40. ^ “Neither/Other” with 5%
  41. ^ Gerhardt (L) and “Other” with 4%
  42. ^ “Someone else” with 3%
  43. ^ “Some other candidate” with 4%; Gerhardt (L) with 3%; Wassmer (K) and Weiss (G) with 1%
  44. ^ Gerhardt (L) and “Other” with 2%
  45. ^ Stern (I) with 3%; “other” (volunteered response) with 2%
  46. ^ Gerhardt (L), Magee (I, W/I), Stern (I), and Weiss (G) with 1%; Johnson (C) and “someone else” with <1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by Honor Pennsylvania PAC, which supports McCormick.
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Oz’s campaign.
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by McCormick’s campaign.
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Parnell’s campaign.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll sponsored by Fetterman’s campaign.
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by pro-Lamb super PAC Penn Progress.
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by Kenyatta’s campaign.
  8. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Oz
  9. ^ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  10. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by EDF Action and NRDC Action Fund
  12. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Collective PAC.

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