The 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Pennsylvania and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. Democratic state attorney general Josh Shapiro and Republican state senator Doug Mastriano are seeking to succeed incumbent Democratic governor Tom Wolf, who is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third consecutive term. The winner of the 2022 gubernatorial election is scheduled to be sworn in on January 17, 2023.

Primaries were held on May 17, 2022. Shapiro won the Democratic nomination after running unopposed and Mastriano won the Republican nomination with 44% of the vote. Mastriano’s nomination drew attention due to his far-right political views.[1][2][3][4]

Democratic primary

Governor

Campaign

Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran unopposed and was described as the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee by The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Pennsylvania Capital-Star early in the campaign, with the Capital-Star reporting that efforts to recruit a primary challenger to the left of Shapiro (who is considered a progressive by the paper) had failed.[5][6]

Candidates

Nominee
Failed to qualify for ballot access
  • Tega Swann, Christian minister[13]
Declined

Endorsements

Josh Shapiro
U.S. Senators
State executives
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Individuals

Results

Democratic primary (governor)[51]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Josh Shapiro 1,227,151 100.0%
Total votes1,227,151 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Democratic nominee Austin Davis

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
Withdrew

Endorsements

Austin Davis
State Executives
State legislators
State representatives
Local officials
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Brian Sims

Results

Results by county

  Davis
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary (lieutenant governor)[70]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Austin Davis 768,141 63.00%
DemocraticBrian Sims305,95925.09%
DemocraticRay Sosa145,22811.91%
Total votes1,219,328 100.0%

Republican primary

In the Republican primary, leading candidates included former Congressman Lou Barletta, Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale, political strategist Charlie Gerow, former U.S. Attorney William McSwain, State Senator Doug Mastriano and former Delaware County Councilmember Dave White.

Several key issues, such as school choice, natural gas exploration in PA, and tax reform, were early themes in the Pennsylvania GOP debates before the primary election,[71] while voting laws in the Commonwealth were a later topic of debate.[72]

Due to his support for overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election and his role in the 2021 U.S. Capitol attack, many Republicans expressed concern about Mastriano’s ability to win the general election. As a result, the party encouraged other candidates to drop out to allow for an alternative to Mastriano to gain traction.[73]

On May 12, president pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate Jake Corman dropped out and endorsed Barletta.[74] On May 14, former President Donald Trump endorsed Mastriano.[75][76][77] On May 12, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that former U.S. Representative Melissa Hart would also drop out and endorse Barletta.[78] Mastriano won the primary anyway with almost 44% of the vote, defeating his nearest competitor, Barletta, by over 23 points.

The New York Times reported in mid-June that Mastriano had been aided in the primary by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and Shapiro’s campaign with an ad equating him to Trump. Shapiro defended the move, saying the ad demonstrated the contrast between him and Mastriano as part of the general election campaign. The Times saw it as part of a nationwide strategy to gain easier opponents in November.[79]

Governor

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
Declined

Debates and forums

2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election Republican primary debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Lou BarlettaJake CormanJoe GaleCharlie GerowMelissa HartDoug MastrianoWilliam McSwainDave White
1April 27, 2022ABC 27Dennis Owens
Lisa Sylvester
PNNNNPPP

Endorsements

Lou Barletta
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
  • Rick Santorum, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and candidate for President in 2012 and 2016 (previously endorsed Corman)[117]
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations
  • Oil and Gas Workers Association[125]
Jake Corman (withdrawn)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
  • Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and candidate for President in 2012 and 2016 (switched endorsement to Barletta after Corman withdrew)[117]
Charlie Gerow
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
  • American Conservative Union[128]
Doug Mastriano
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals
William McSwain
U.S. Senators
Party officials
Jason Richey (withdrawn)
Individuals
Dave White
Executive Branch officials
State legislators
Declined to endorse

Polling

Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Lou
Barletta
Jake
Corman
Doug
Mastriano
William
McSwain
Dave
White
Other
[a]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsMay 3–16, 2022May 17, 202220.3%2.7%34.3%15.3%9.8%17.6%Mastriano +14.0
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Lou
Barletta
Jake
Corman
Scott
Martin
Doug
Mastriano
William
McSwain
Dave
White
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)May 14–16, 20221,195 (LV)± 2.9%25%37%17%10%6%[c]5%
Emerson CollegeMay 14–15, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%22%2%34%12%9%7%[d]15%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)May 12–15, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%15%1%29%18%8%6%[e]24%
May 13, 2022Hart withdraws from the race
May 12, 2022Corman withdraws from the race
The Trafalgar Group (R)May 6–8, 20221,080 (LV)± 3.0%18%5%28%14%15%9%[f]11%
Fox NewsMay 3–7, 20221,001 (LV)± 3.0%17%5%29%13%11%9%[g]15%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeApril 20 – May 1, 2022325 (RV)± 6.9%11%1%20%12%8%11%[h]34%
The Trafalgar Group (R)April 11–13, 20221,074 (LV)± 3.0%19%3%22%17%11%8%[i]19%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeMarch 30 – April 10, 2022317 (RV)± 6.6%10%2%15%12%5%14%[j]40%
Eagle Consulting Group (R)April 7–9, 2022502 (LV)± 4.4%11%19%13%7%6%44%
Emerson CollegeApril 3–4, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%20%4%19%8%12%11%[k]27%
Emerson CollegeMarch 26–28, 2022372 (LV)± 5.0%12%2%16%6%6%8%[l]49%
Fox NewsMarch 2–6, 2022517 (LV)± 4.0%19%6%3%18%11%14%2%[m]25%
TargetPoint Consulting (R)February 25–28, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%17%6%3%14%7%8%45%
February 11, 2022Martin withdraws from the race
The Trafalgar Group (R)February 1–4, 20221,070 (LV)± 3.0%24%5%4%20%4%14%29%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A]November 9–10, 2021648 (LV)± 3.8%14%4%3%18%2%1%4%[n]56%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)September 24–30, 2021313 (LV)± 5.6%27%6%0%6%[o]60%
WPA Intelligence (R)[B]May 10–12, 2021826 (LV)± 3.4%16%19%17%[p]49%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)February 16–24, 2021272 (LV)± 5.9%20%11%3%8%[q]60%

Results

Results by county

  Mastriano
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Barletta
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  McSwain
  •   30–40%
  White
  •   50–60%
Republican primary (governor)[51]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Doug Mastriano 591,240 43.81%
RepublicanLou Barletta273,25220.25%
RepublicanWilliam McSwain212,88615.78%
RepublicanDave White129,0589.56%
RepublicanMelissa Hart (withdrawn)[r]54,7524.06%
RepublicanJoe Gale27,9202.07%
RepublicanJake Corman (withdrawn)[r]26,0911.93%
RepublicanCharlie Gerow17,9221.33%
RepublicanNche Zama16,2381.20%
Total votes1,349,359 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Declined

  • Brandon Flood, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons (2019–2021)[154] (Endorsed Coleman)

Endorsements

Teddy Daniels
State legislators
Jeff Coleman
U.S. Senators
Individuals
  • Brandon Flood, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons (2019–2021)[154]
Russ Diamond
Organizations
  • Stand for Health Freedom[157]

Results

  DelRosso
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Saccone
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Daniels
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   50–60%
  Schillinger
  •   20–30%
  •   40–50%
  Coleman
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Diamond
  •   60–70%
  Brown
  •   20–30%
  •   40–50%
  Frye
  •   20–30%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary (lieutenant governor)[70]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Carrie DelRosso 318,970 25.59%
RepublicanRick Saccone195,77415.71%
RepublicanTeddy Daniels150,93512.11%
RepublicanClarice Schillinger148,44211.91%
RepublicanJeff Coleman126,07210.11%
RepublicanJames Jones113,9669.14%
RepublicanRuss Diamond74,2655.96%
RepublicanJohn Brown59,2674.75%
RepublicanChris Frye58,7524.71%
Total votes1,246,443 100%

Libertarian nomination

The Libertarian Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[158][159][160]

Governor

Candidates

Nominee
  • Matt Hackenburg, aerospace computer engineer[161]
Eliminated in board vote
Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrew
  • Nicole Shultz, auditor of Windsor Township, York County (2022–present) and treasurer of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania (2021–2022) (ran for Governor)[145][163][164][162]

Green convention

The Green Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[158][159][160]

Governor

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominee

Independents and other parties

Governor

Candidates

Qualified for ballot
Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Qualified for ballot
  • Nicole Shultz (Keystone nominee), auditor of Windsor Township, York County (2022–present) and treasurer of the Keystone Party of Pennsylvania (2022–present) (originally ran as a Libertarian for Lieutenant Governor and later Governor)[170][163][174][160]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[175]Likely DSeptember 29, 2022
Inside Elections[176]Tilt DJuly 22, 2022
Sabato’s Crystal Ball[177]Likely DSeptember 28, 2022
Politico[178]Lean DMay 23, 2022
RCP[179]TossupJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News[180]Lean DJuly 11, 2022
538[181]Solid DSeptember 29, 2022

Endorsements

Josh Shapiro (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Doug Mastriano (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
Statewide officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Josh
Shapiro (D)
Doug
Mastriano (R)
Other
[s]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsJune 10 – September 24, 2022September 24, 202251.6%42.3%6.1%Shapiro +9.3%
FiveThirtyEightJune 10 – September 26, 2022September 26, 202251.2%41.0%7.8%Shapiro +10.3%
Average51.4%41.7%7.0%Shapiro +9.8%
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Josh
Shapiro (D)
Doug
Mastriano (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeSeptember 23–26, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%51%41%2%[t]7%
Fox NewsSeptember 19–25, 20221,008 (RV)± 3%51%40%9%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeSeptember 19–25, 2022517 (RV)± 5.6%51%37%12%
InsiderAdvantage (R)September 23–24, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%52%37%4%[u]7%
Marist CollegeSeptember 19–22, 20221,242 (RV)± 3.5%53%40%<1%[v]6%
1,043 (LV)± 3.8%54%42%4%
The Phillips Academy PollSeptember 16–19, 2022759 (RV)± 3.6%46%43%12%
Muhlenberg CollegeSeptember 13–16, 2022420 (LV)± 6.0%53%42%1%[w]3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)September 13–15, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%47%45%4%[x]3%
Monmouth UniversitySeptember 8–12, 2022605 (RV)± 4.0%54%36%
YouGov/CBS NewsSeptember 6–12, 20221,188 (LV)± 3.8%55%44%1%
RABA ResearchAugust 31 – September 3, 2022679 (LV)± 3.8%47%41%4%[y]9%
Survey Monkey (D)[C]August 31 – September 1, 20221,012 (RV)± 3.0%53%32%15%
616 (LV)± 3.0%56%35%9%
Emerson CollegeAugust 22–23, 20221,034 (LV)± 3.0%47%44%3%6%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeAugust 15–21, 2022522 (RV)± 5.3%48%36%4%[z]12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)August 15–18, 20221,096 (LV)± 2.9%49%45%2%[aa]5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)August 7–10, 2022600 (RV)± 4.0%51%37%11%
Fox NewsJuly 22–26, 2022908 (RV)± 3.0%50%40%1%8%
Blueprint Polling (D)July 19–21, 2022712 (LV)± 3.7%51%39%10%
Beacon Research (D)[D]July 5–20, 20221,012 (RV)± 3.1%49%35%1%12%
609 (LV)± 4.0%52%39%1%7%
Global Strategy Group (D)[E]July 14–19, 20221,200 (LV)± 2.9%50%42%7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)June 12–19, 20221,382 (LV)± 4.4%49%46%5%
Cygnal (R)June 16–17, 2022535 (LV)± 4.2%48%45%7%
Suffolk UniversityJune 10–13, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%44%40%3%[ab]13%
Hypothetical polling
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)May 12–18, 2022600 (RV)± 4.6%47%45%8%

Results

2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
Republican
Libertarian
  • Matt Hackenburg
  • Tim McMaster
Green
  • Christina DiGiulio
  • Michael Bagdes-Canning
Keystone
  • Joe Soloski
  • Nicole Shultz
N/A
Total votes

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Gerow with 4%; Gale with 3%
  4. ^ Gerow with 3%; Hart with 2%; Gale and Zama with 1%
  5. ^ Gerow with 3%; Hart, Gale, and “Other” with 1%; Zama with 0%
  6. ^ Hart with 4%, Gale with 3%, Gerow with 2%
  7. ^ Hart with 4%; Gale with 2%; Gerow, Zama, and “Other” (volunteered response) with 1%
  8. ^ “Someone else” with 5%; Hart and Zama with 2%; Gale and Gerow with 1%
  9. ^ Hart with 4%, Gale and Zama with 2%, Gerow with 1%
  10. ^ “Someone else” with 7%, Gale and Hart with 3%, Gerow with 1%, Zama with 0%
  11. ^ Gale, Gerow, and Hart with 3%; Zama with 2%
  12. ^ Gale and Hart with 3%; Gerow with 2%; Zama with 0%
  13. ^ Zama and “Other” (volunteered response) with 1%
  14. ^ Gale with 3%; Richley with 1%
  15. ^ “None/other” with 4%; Gale and Richey with 1%; Ciarrocchi, Gerow, Laughlin, and Zama with 0%
  16. ^ “Someone else” with 10%; “Other” with 7%
  17. ^ Meuser with 3%, Cawley with 2%, “None/other” with 1%; Gale and Richey with 1%
  18. ^ a b Withdrew after deadline, remained on ballot
  19. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  20. ^ “Someone else” with 2%
  21. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 3%; “Someone else” with 1%
  22. ^ “Another party’s candidate” with <1%
  23. ^ “Neither/Other” with 1%
  24. ^ Hackenburg (L) and “Other” with 2%
  25. ^ “Someone else” with 4%
  26. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) and “Some other candidate” with 1%; Soloski (K) with 0%
  27. ^ Hackenburg (L) and “Other” with 1%
  28. ^ DiGuilo (G) and Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) and “someone else” with <1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Mastriano
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by EDF Action and NRDC Action Fund

References

  1. ^ Otterbein, Holly; Montellaro, Zach. “Pennsylvania GOP panics over possible Mastriano nomination”. Politico. Philadelphia. Retrieved May 11, 2022.
  2. ^ a b Epstein, Reid J. (May 17, 2022). “Doug Mastriano, a far-right 2020 election denier, is Pennsylvania Republicans’ choice for governor”. The New York Times. Retrieved May 18, 2022.
  3. ^ Smith, Allan (May 17, 2022). “Far-right election denier Mastriano wins GOP race for governor in Pennsylvania”. NBC News. Retrieved May 19, 2022.
  4. ^ Dunklau, Sam (May 17, 2022). “A far-right election denier wins GOP governor primary in swing state of Pennsylvania”. NPR. Retrieved May 19, 2022.
  5. ^ “Despite Still Not Having Announced His Run, Abington’s Josh Shapiro is Presumptive Democratic Nomination for Governor”. Montco Today. October 13, 2021. Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  6. ^ “How Josh Shapiro locked down the Democratic nomination for governor without even announcing he would run”. The Philadelphia Inquirer. October 11, 2021. Archived from the original on October 11, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  7. ^ a b Brennan, Chris (December 9, 2019). “Everyone’s already talking about Pennsylvania’s big 2022 elections. Just don’t ask the candidates”. The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved January 17, 2020.
  8. ^ Brennan, Chris; Terruso, Julia; McCrystal, Laura (November 8, 2019). “Did Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf just endorse Josh Shapiro for governor in 2022? ‘That’s my guy.’. The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved January 17, 2020.
  9. ^ Gomez, Henry J. (October 13, 2021). “Pa. Attorney General Josh Shapiro launches Democratic bid for governor”. NBC News. Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  10. ^ a b Caruso, Stephen (March 16, 2022). “An early guide to Pennsylvania’s 2022 Senate and governor’s primary election”. Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved March 16, 2022.
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  12. ^ Axelrod, Tal (May 17, 2022). “Shapiro skates to Democratic governor’s nod in Pennsylvania”. The Hill. Retrieved May 18, 2022.
  13. ^ Vercilla, Nicholas (December 29, 2021). “Tega Swann announces candidacy for governor in 2022 election”. The Beaver County Times. Archived from the original on January 6, 2022. Retrieved February 10, 2022.
  14. ^ Otterbein, Holly (February 8, 2021). “John Fetterman launches Senate bid in Pennsylvania”. Politico. Retrieved February 8, 2021.
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External links

2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites for gubernatorial candidates
Official campaign websites for lieutenant gubernatorial candidates